Anybody who has been or is involved in scientific research knows that any credible theory must be able to make reasonably accurate predictions.
Unfortunately for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), their theory that increases in global temperatures are caused by increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide has failed to meet this criterion. This theory failed to explain why temperatures did not increase during 1940 to 1970 and from 1998 to 2010 even though carbon levels continued to increase during these periods. One of the high priests of the global warming religion, Kevin Trenberth, stated recently: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment, and it is a travesty that we can’t.” This reveals the unscientific bias of those promoting this theory.
Another criterion of scientific credibility is the honesty of its proponents to admit the failure of their theory. When we are told that temperatures in recent years have been the highest on record, we are never told that temperatures have not increased since 1998. We are never told that the very small 0.6 degree rise in temperature during the last 150 years followed a three-century long little ice age, nor that there have been two extended periods of global warming similar to the present during the past 3000 years. Obviously, carbon dioxide was not involved!
The current belief that recent global warming will continue with catastrophic consequences is based almost entirely on modelling in which it is assumed that carbon dioxide is the major factor. However, there is now conclusive evidence that warming can be fully explained by measured natural changes in cloud cover and incident solar radiation without any recourse to human produced carbon dioxide.
Changes in cloud cover also explain the absence of warming since 2000, and derived models predict that there will be no further warming for the next 20 years. The fact that the IPCC ignores this evidence further demonstrates the lack of credibility of their alarmist claims.
The IPCC also conceals the fact that the Arctic is now no warmer than it was in 1940 and the extent of Arctic sea ice has recovered to the highest April extent since 2001. The east coast temperature of Greenland has never exceeded the peak it reached in 1940, and the west coast has exceeded its 1940 peak only once. On the Antarctic continent, 60 per cent of the surface shows either no trend in temperature change or a slight cooling. The eastern ice sheet has shown no significant increase in melting. In Europe, glaciers are shrinking while the Scandinavian ones are growing, and those of the Caucasus are little changed. The shrinking of glaciers actually began in the late 19th century, well before carbon dioxide levels began to rise and after glaciers had grown significantly during the little ice age. Many more examples could be given of important facts concealed by the IPCC.
Unfortunately, the international community has accepted the poor science and false predictions of the IPCC, while the superior science, referred to above, giving much more accurate predictions, is ignored. The world will pay a heavy price in electricity and food shortages and futile efforts to reduce carbon emissions if it continues to accept the claims and follow the advice of the IPCC.
(Dr) Ian Holford
